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(CNN)Turkey is so deeply polarized around the powerful persona of its president Recep Tayyip Erdogan that instead of asking why terror attacks are happening and how they can be stopped, the country’s pro- and anti-Erdogan blocks are blaming each other.
This leaves me deeply worried about Turkey and its ability to stymie further terror attacks through the vigor of its institutions and unity of its citizens.
Including last night’s attack on a nightclub in central Istanbul, which killed at least 39 people, by my count Turkey has suffered 33 major terror attacks since summer 2015. These attacks, which have killed more than 730 people, are connected to two terror groups: ISIS and the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK.
Instead, Turkey’s polarized landscape shapes the debate in the country in the aftermath of each attack.
If ISIS carries out an attack, anti-Erdogan Turks blame him for not protecting them. And if the PKK carries out an attack, then pro-Erdogan Turks blame the opposition, and so goes the vicious cycle until the next horrible attack.
Turkey has strong national security institutions, which have helped it weather previous terror waves, including a full-blown PKK insurgency in the 1990s. The same institutions have also helped the country avert past crises, such as civil war-like fighting on the streets between hard-right and hard-left groups in the 1970s.
But, if the Turks do not engage in an honest conversation on how to prevent the tide of violence facing them this time, I fear even these strong institutions may not be enough to halt the wave of terror and save the country from destruction.
Soner Cagaptay is director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, and author of “The new Sultan: Erdogan and the crisis of modern Turkey” and “The rise of Turkey: The 21st century’s first Muslim power.” The views expressed are solely those of the author.
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