As ISIS suffers in its heartland, South Asia is ripe for its rise

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(CNN)With the ISIS heartland in Iraq and Syria imploding, its support groups in the periphery, as well as rival groups such as al Qaeda, are gathering momentum.

With the likely dwindling of ISIS power, will there be a reverse defection where the groups that previously left al Qaeda rejoin the movement? Or, will the so-called Islamic State reinvent and refocus on weakly governed sub-regions and countries?

READ: Terror export fears as ISIS ‘caliphate’ shrinks

The epicenter of international terrorism started to shift from Afghanistan to Iraq after US invasion of Iraq in March 2003 and reached its peak after the Syrian uprising in 2011.

But, as it suffers in its heartland, it is very likely that ISIS will grow in size, strength and influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Introducing ISK

ISIS has lured several Pakistani, Afghan and foreign groups since June 2014.

Gradually, ISIS united these diverse entities, creating Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) in January 2015.

Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, the group most recently blamed for the police academy attack in Quetta, split after the Pakistani authorities decapitated its leadership.

Its Karachi faction is now working with AQIS — al Qaeda in the Sub Continent, while its Baluchistan faction is working with ISK.

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As a part of its decentralization strategy, it’s clear ISIS has seeded a nucleus in the Af-Pak theater. And despite military reversals in Iraq and Syria, it is very likely ISIS will grow in size, strength and influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

ISIS has suffered in its heartland, but its appeal remains significant, and the sheer brutality of ISK will sustain the momentum and spread in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Unless the Afghanistan and Pakistan government work together, the threat is likely to grow and affect the entire South Asian region. Already, ISK has established cells in India and ISIS has established a presence in Sri Lanka and Maldives.

ISIS presents a growing threat to the entire South Asian region. With a Muslim population of 240 million or 40% of the global Muslim population — South Asia is a lucrative battlefield for ISIS.

Governments within and outside the region should work with Pakistan and Afghanistan to contain, isolate and eliminate ISK and the influence of ISIS.

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